There are multiple databases that quantify severe human rights violations. However, it is common for these databases to have gaps in information of two types: missing values and missing records. Missing values occur when information about a variable is absent for a record, while missing records refer to those that are not present in a database. Both situations hinder the unveiling of patterns of violence and the guarantee of the right to truth.

Statistics contribute to overcoming these gaps through statistical imputation and estimation by multiple systems, though this does not mean that uncertainty is completely eliminated. Thus, through the use of statistical methods, it is possible to estimate the magnitude of violence within a possible range. Statistical methods quantify both the observed and the unobserved.

Based on this, it is feasible to study patterns of violence that provide a broader view of the conflict. If the analysis is conducted solely based on the observed data, the data recorded in databases, there is a risk of ignoring patterns of violence that are undocumented in these databases.

In this regard, and in collaboration with the organization Human Rights Data Analysis Group, we present a new document explaining how statistics contribute to guaranteeing the right to truth, especially in its collective dimension. It also addresses how, thanks to estimations, it is possible to contribute to clarifying the atrocious past.

Five lessons from this publication:

1. Talking about data amidst human rights violations is important to understand the dynamics of violence behavior and the patterns they form, as well as to find, describe, and compare the behaviors of the actors involved.
2. Moreover, statistical methods contribute to guaranteeing the rights of victims, because in contexts of massive or systematic violence, it is impossible for all human rights violations to be documented. This leaves uncertainty that can be addressed through statistical methods that tackle information gaps. Thus, by collecting, systematizing, and analyzing large data sets—acknowledging that they do not contain all the information—it contributes to guaranteeing, for example, the right to truth.
3. Statistical methods are fundamental for the work of a truth commission, as they allow studying, through the scientific method, what is unknown about the data. They help address gaps in information resulting from uncertainty, i.e., the unobserved, and contribute to probabilistically approaching the possible content of missing information (to gauge the uncertainty).
4. However, truth commissions require certain minimum conditions to apply statistical methods, such as ensuring access to relevant information, not just state-originated information; integrating an archive, designing, and implementing a proper information management system that can clarify what happened and identify patterns of violence, and recognizing the existence of gaps in information, using statistical methods to address them.
5. Statistical methods impact human rights, as there is interdependence between the right to truth, the right to information, and other rights. This happens for at least three reasons:

– Due to the national and international obligation of states to guarantee the right to truth and, therefore, to produce or reconstruct information even when it has been taken or destroyed.

– Because making undocumented patterns visible can reveal hidden patterns of violence.

– Because everyone matters, and it is inevitable that information will be incomplete, but this should not lead to fatalism of accepting the gaps and guaranteeing the right to truth only partially.